Will COVID-19 be seasonal?

Will COVID-19 be seasonal?

Months ago, specifically last March, the United Nations announced that it was possible that the spread of the new Corona virus could become seasonal, but at the time it clarified that the data was still insufficient to suggest reliance on weather and air quality to adapt anti-pandemic measures.

Today, this hypothesis has returned to the fore, after it was reinforced by a prominent German virologist, who considered that the possibility of the epidemic changing to become seasonal is possible, and this could happen by the fall or winter, expecting that its arrival would be repeated every year, and at the same time reassuring that the possibility of controlling it With booster vaccinations it is very possible.

Christian Drosten added that he believed that the number of coronavirus cases would rise after the summer, but that the disease could be controlled.

"Fourth wave"

While it is likely that the rise will be described as a “fourth wave”, considering that all possibilities will be the beginning of a “new and permanent phase” or a “seasonal epidemic” that will be repeated for several years with the possibility of controlling it through additional vaccinations.

Drosten, who is head of the department of virology at Berlin University Hospital and has always been a key advisor in advising government and public health officials throughout the pandemic, added that despite clear indications that the virus was increasingly under control, this matter remained on hold. People who refuse vaccinations and consider them unnecessary or fail to get them.

Transition

He also pointed out in a statement to a German radio quoted by the newspaper "The Guardian", that at the present time the world is in a transitional stage, noting that the next goal is to vaccinate 80% of the fully adult population in Germany.

Then plans will be made over the coming months to vaccinate children and measure how quickly those who have been vaccinated lose their immunity.

He pointed out that it is possible that the elderly in particular will be the ones who do not react strongly to the vaccine, and therefore their immunity will be weaker.

In addition, he expected to see by the fall, clear changes in people's immunity to a better situation, and there would still be more time to study the epidemic variables and its mutations.

Probably seasonally

It is worth noting that the World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations had formed a working group of 16 experts to study the impact of meteorological factors and air quality on the spread of the virus.

In their first report, the experts estimated that the seasonality of respiratory viral diseases, which are exacerbated at the height of the cold season, suggests that COVID-19 is likely to be a seasonal disease if it persists for several years.

The study also showed that its spread may become seasonal over time, which indicates that it may be possible to rely on meteorological factors and air quality to monitor and predict the disease in the future, but they considered it too early to rely on weather factors and air quality.

They pointed out that the mechanisms to control the spread of the Covid-19 virus last year were mainly based on government interventions and not on meteorological factors.

In addition, the World Meteorological Organization explained that while laboratory studies have found some evidence that the virus survives longer in cold, dry conditions, it has not yet been determined whether weather factors have a significant impact on infection rates in realistic conditions.

The team concluded that there is still no conclusive evidence about the influence of factors related to air quality.

It is noteworthy that although there are preliminary data that poor air quality increases mortality rates, experts pointed out that it has not been proven that pollution has a direct effect on the spread through the air of the SARS-Cove-2 virus that causes Covid-19.

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