Analysts are betting on the experience gained by individuals and countries in dealing with this unprecedented pandemic, during the current year, which makes them able to contain the repercussions of any similar new scenarios in 2021.

International organizations, for their part, expect a gradual recovery during the year 2021, nominating certain countries to lead global growth during the new year, led by China. At a time when it is believed that a full recovery from the repercussions of the pandemic may need two to three years, most likely; In order for the global economy to return to the same levels as before the outbreak of the epidemic, which was confirmed by World Bank President David Malpass, a few days ago.

The pandemic, which has killed more than 1.5 million people around the world since the beginning of the year, is accompanied by several hopeful developments, including increased testing for corona detection, as well as access to vaccines for the virus, which enhances expectations of a gradual recovery from the crisis.

The contraction rate in 2020 is expected to reach 4.4 percent, which is less severe than the rate that the International Monetary Fund had expected last June, according to the "World Economic Outlook Update", reflecting better than expected GDP results. In the second quarter of the year, especially in advanced economies, in which activity began to improve more quickly than expected after the easing of the closure year in the months of May and June.

two scenarios

“The unprecedented crisis that the global economy witnessed in 2020, which, unlike previous crises, pushed economists and decision makers to a non-economic arena, in which the effectiveness of economic policies and economic stimulus packages is diminishing, and the final word in it was for medical scientific research centers and not the economy to a large extent. “.

This was confirmed by the consultant and economic expert, Dr. Kamal Amin Al-Wasal, in statements to “Sky News Arabia”, during which he stressed that “in light of the frequent news about the virus mutating a few days ago and the closures that affected the most important European economies, saying economic expectations has become like astrology, Therefore, talking about scenarios and not predictions of numerical growth rates is closer to correct, and in this regard we can talk about two possible scenarios.”

First scenario: Controlling the process of virus mutation, with the ability of vaccines to confront the new version of it, and in this case, the talk about global economic growth rates will revolve around 5 percent in 2021, as expected by the International Monetary Fund, an acceptable matter, and even a higher growth rate can be expected in light of Consumers and investors thirst to return to the normal course of economic activity, and in light of a psychological factor that cannot be ignored, it may raise the levels of consumer demand to the highest levels of consumers’ desire to feel that life has returned to normal and compensate for the deprivation of a whole year of some goods and services such as tourism and entertainment.

 second scenario, According to Al-Wasal, it is linked to the difficulty of controlling the mutated version of the virus, and the joining of some countries to the closure process with its economic consequences, but things in this case will not be worse than the beginning of the pandemic, in light of the experience gained by individuals and governments in dealing with the pandemic and familiarity Adhere to precautionary measures.

While the impact of the new strain of the mutated virus is not known, “relatively” optimistic forecasts for the global economy in 2021 were issued by international organizations, including the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which said earlier this month that the outlook for the global economy is improving despite the second wave of outbreaks. Corona Virus. She attributed this improvement thanks to the talk about vaccinations. The organization expects a growth of 4.2 percent for the global economy in the new year, to decline in 2022 to 3.7 percent.

The organization nominated certain economies that could return at the end of 2021 to pre-pandemic levels, including China, which the organization said will “provide about a third of global economic growth next year”, while it stated that other economies will suffer from levels lower than it was by up to up to 5 percent in 2022.

the source :

Sky News

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